Theme 5: Water (ENG)

Responding to Climate Change in Mozambique - Component Water Dr. Georg Petersen HYDROC Consult Siegum 4, 24960 Siegum, Germany +49-172-4509149 gpetersen@hydroc.de www.hydroc.de Executive summary In SC1, a water Decision Support System (DSS) was developed for the whole Zambezi basin, covering 1.4 Mio km². The DSS is a state-of-the-art, well calibrated, easy to use analysis tool that will serve Mozambican analysts for rapid assessment of impacts of climate change and upstream developments (irrigation, dams) on discharge. Due to its implementation as an open web-based system, the DSS is also available to the general public. The DSS has a graphical user interface and combines GIS layers, background maps and model elements, which are linked to a dynamic database and river basin model. The water balance module of the DSS simulates runoff generation from monthly precipitation and temperature inputs in 27 sub-basins of the Zambezi basin. A water allocation module considers wetlands, reservoir operations and water abstractions and aggregates discharge along the rivernetwork at 40 locations. The user can interactively add locations of interest and add or modify scenarios including climate change, water withdrawals (irrigation), dam development and reservoir operation rules. Climatic data included in the DSS cover the period 1950-2005 for historic observations and 1960-2100 for data of three climate models, thereby enabling simulations for any time-slice between 1950 and 2100. The DSS includes an analysis tool for visualization of simulation results as time-series, seasonality or distribution (frequencies of high and low flows). Export of results enables post-processing with external software. Results of application examples of the DSS are presented, including impact assessment of climate change, irrigation and dam development. The examples show the high sensitivity and high complexity of regional changes in the Zambezi basin under various scenarios. Therefore, the DSS will serve as an important scenario analysis tool for water resources management in the Zambezi basin. The server with the installed DSS system will be located at CENOE in Maputo, Mozambique. The modular structure of the DSS software allows for future extensions to other river basins as well as other functionalities.

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