Phase II Reports (English)

Synthesis Report: English (print ready)

The project, Responding to climate change in Mozambique (INGC Phase II, 2009–2012), was organised around three pillars: a strategy pillar, a capacity-building pillar and an implementation pillar. The extent to which Mozambique’s vulnerability will increase with increasing exposure to climate change risks will depend on the country’s adaptive capacity. Without the implementation of priority adaptation measures, the increasing exposure of people and economic assets will lead to exponential increases in economic loss from climate-related disasters. The 2012 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SREX report broadened the definition of climate change and placed extreme events right at the forefront of climate change concerns. Over the past few years, particularly in Africa, it has become clear that adaptation to climate change impacts should become central to actions in any climate regime. This was also the message given at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting held in Durban in November 2011, which was taken up by the African countries. Led by the Mozambican Government’s National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC), a scientific study on the potential impacts of climate change in Mozambique was conducted (INGC Phase I, 2008–2009). This research, which was widely quoted and the first to apply downscaled climate change models to Mozambique, provided the country with significant insight into how climate change could impact on national investment and poverty reduction plans over the coming five to 10 years, threatening large portions of the coastline where development is taking place and population settlements are located. It showed that, in Mozambique, climate change and disaster risk go hand in hand, as most of the impacts of climate change would be felt in the form of the worsening risk, spread, intensity and frequency of natural disasters. A second project focused on the identification of science-based solutions to the potential impacts from climate change. The strategy pillar looked at how Mozambicans need to prepare for climate change impacts by 2030 from a disaster risk perspective and at what actions and funding are needed to achieve this. The capacity-building pillar identified the most effective ways to create the necessary in-country skills and information base for essential research and education and to facilitate a good science-policy interface. The implementation pillar identified adaptation measures and costs for specific high disaster risk, high-impact areas organised around the themes of coastal protection, early warning, water, agriculture, cities and the private sector.

Theme 1: Early Warning at a Different Scale [English (print ready)]

 

Theme 2: Coastal Protection [English (print ready)]

Coastal planning and adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts Andre Theron or Laurie Barwell Email: atheron@csir.co.za or lbarwell@csir.co.za This study determined the levels of coastal vulnerability and potential impacts of sea level rise and more extreme weather events on 12 high-risk cities and towns along the coast: Ponta d’Ouro, Maputo, Xaixai beach, Tofu, Maxixe, Inhambane, Vilankulos,Beira, Quelimane, Ilha de Mozambique, Nacala and Pemba. Specific implications for tourism and industry in each of the 12 locations were identified, and recommendations given on the interventions needed to protect people and infrastructure from the increasingly extreme weather events and sea level rise.

Theme 3: Preparing Cities

English (print ready)

Theme 4A: Building resilience

English (print ready)

Theme 4B: Private Sector

 

Theme 5: Water (ENG)

Responding to Climate Change in Mozambique - Component Water Dr. Georg Petersen HYDROC Consult Siegum 4, 24960 Siegum, Germany +49-172-4509149 gpetersen@hydroc.de www.hydroc.de Executive summary In SC1, a water Decision Support System (DSS) was developed for the whole Zambezi basin, covering 1.4 Mio km². The DSS is a state-of-the-art, well calibrated, easy to use analysis tool that will serve Mozambican analysts for rapid assessment of impacts of climate change and upstream developments (irrigation, dams) on discharge. Due to its implementation as an open web-based system, the DSS is also available to the general public. The DSS has a graphical user interface and combines GIS layers, background maps and model elements, which are linked to a dynamic database and river basin model. The water balance module of the DSS simulates runoff generation from monthly precipitation and temperature inputs in 27 sub-basins of the Zambezi basin. A water allocation module considers wetlands, reservoir operations and water abstractions and aggregates discharge along the rivernetwork at 40 locations. The user can interactively add locations of interest and add or modify scenarios including climate change, water withdrawals (irrigation), dam development and reservoir operation rules. Climatic data included in the DSS cover the period 1950-2005 for historic observations and 1960-2100 for data of three climate models, thereby enabling simulations for any time-slice between 1950 and 2100. The DSS includes an analysis tool for visualization of simulation results as time-series, seasonality or distribution (frequencies of high and low flows). Export of results enables post-processing with external software. Results of application examples of the DSS are presented, including impact assessment of climate change, irrigation and dam development. The examples show the high sensitivity and high complexity of regional changes in the Zambezi basin under various scenarios. Therefore, the DSS will serve as an important scenario analysis tool for water resources management in the Zambezi basin. The server with the installed DSS system will be located at CENOE in Maputo, Mozambique. The modular structure of the DSS software allows for future extensions to other river basins as well as other functionalities.

Theme 5.1: Water (Limpopo study 1)

English (print ready)

Theme 5.2: Water (Limpopo Study 2)

 

Theme 6: Agriculture

English (print ready)

Theme 7: Preparing People

English (print ready)

Theme 8: Ocean Climate

English (print ready)

Theme 9: Strategy

English (print ready)